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Mitigation and Adaptation Studies
Course: BIOL/OEAS 466; BIOL/OEAS 595 (three credits)
Course title: Introduction to Mitigation and Adaptation Studies
Instructors: Dr. Hans-Peter Plag and Dr. Tatyana Lobova
Graduate Teaching Assistant: Ms. Harmony Hancock hhanc003@odu.edu
Term: Spring 2017
Time: Mondays and Wednesday, 3:00-4:14 PM
Location: NEW ED BUILDING 1104
Class Pages
NOTE: All participants are asked to read the book by Rockström and Klum (2015) prior to the class (see first class for full reference). The book by Sodhi and Ehrlich (2010) will be used throughout the course to provide a theoretica;l background. It is available for free down-load at https://conbio.org/publications/free-textbook/ and also uploaded to the library in the workspace.
- Class (01/11/2017)
- Class (01/18/2017)
- Class (01/23/2017)
- Class (01/25/2017)
- Class (01/30/2017)
- Class (02/01/2017)
- Class (02/06/2017)
- Class (02/08/2017)
- Class (02/13/2017)
- Class (02/15/2017)
- Class (02/20/2017)
- Class (02/22/2017)
- Class (02/27/2017)
- Class (03/01/2017)
- Class (03/13/2017)
- Class (03/15/2017)
- Class (03/20/2017)
- Class (03/22/2017)
- Class (03/27/2017)
- Class (03/29/2017)
- Class (04/03/2017)
- Class (04/05/2017)
- Class (04/10/2017)
- Class (04/12/2017)
- Class (04/17/2017)
- Class (04/19/2017)
A number of publications will be available as PDF for use in the class on the workspace.
- Class 1 (01/11/2017): The Challenge of Conservation in Times of Change
- Class 2 (01/18/2017): The Challenge we are Facing
Summary < p>Humanity has pushed the planet outside of the Holocene, the last geological epoch, which started 11,700 years ago. The Holocene was a period of exceptionally stable climate, and with this, it provide a “safe operating space for humanity,” in which to make a transition from being hunterers and gatherers to agriculture and an initially slow development of civilization. The recent two centuries have seen rapid changes, mainly due to more energy available to humans, and in the last 70 years, humanity has developed into the most dominant species on the planet reengineering the surface and changing the major mass cycles. At the end of the Holocene, the rapid transition to a new epoch poses a challenge to humanity that might threaten the modern global society at its core. Timely adaptation to an uncertain future is at the core of a sustainable development for humanity through this transition.
Reading List
Rockström, J., Klum, M, 2015. Small Planet, Big World. Yale University Press.
Opening Video “Make a World of Difference”, World Climate Summit, New York City, 2014.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gPq9YAg9mfc&feature=youtu.be: We are the Asteroid.
Moss, R. H., Meehl, G. A., Lemos, M. C., Smith, J. B., Arnold, J. R., Behar, D., Brasseur, G. P., Broomell, S. B., Busalacchi, A. J., Dessai, S., Ebi, K. L., Edmonds, J. A., Furlow, J., Goddard, L., Hartmann, H. C., Hurrell, J. W., Katzenberger, J. W., Liverman, D. M., Mote, P. W., Moser, S. C., Kumar, A., Pulwarty, R. S., Seyller, E. A., Turner II, B. L., Washington, W. M., Wilbanks, T. J., 2013. Climate Change - Hell, High Water: Practice-Relevant Adaptation Science. Science, 342, 696-698, DOI: 10.1126/science.1239569.
- Class 3 (01/23/2017): The Holocene: A Period of Comfortable Stability
Summary
Based on the paleo-record over the last 800,000 years and more, we can construct a baseline “normal range” for long-term climate variability. Compared to this baseline, climate was exceptionally stable during the Holocene, the most recent geological epoch that began 11,700 years ago. With this stability, the Holocene provided a “safe operating space for humanity” (SOSH) and the development of civilization, as we know it. Sea level has been exceptionally stable during the last 6,000 years allowing humanity to build large permanent settlements in the coastal zone and to benefit from the many ecosystem services and logistical advantages the coastal zone has to offer. The experience of the past has created the paradigms that climate is relatively stable, that sea level does not change very much, and that the coastline is rather stable over time. The way we built infrastructure and coastal protections and how we utilize the coastal zone is based on these paradigms.
Reading List
Rockström, J., Steffen, W., Noone, K., Persson, Å., Chapin, F. S. I., Lambin, E., Lenton, T. M., Scheffer, M., Folke, C., Schellnhuber, H., Nykvist, B., De Wit, C. A., Hughes, T., van der Leeuw, S., Rodhe, H., Sörlin, S., Snyder, P. K., Costanza, R., Svedin, U., Falkenmark, M., Karlberg, L., Corell, R. W., Fabry, V. J., Hansen, J., Walker, B., Liverman, D., Richardson, K., Crutzen, P., and Foley, J., 2009. A safe operating space for humanity, Nature, 461, 472-475.
Rockström, J., W. Steffen, K. Noone, Å. Persson, F. S. Chapin, III, E. Lambin, T. M. Lenton, M. Scheffer, C. Folke, H. Schellnhuber, B. Nykvist, C. A. De Wit, T. Hughes, S. van der Leeuw, H. Rodhe, S. Sörlin, P. K. Snyder, R. Costanza, U. Svedin, M. Falkenmark, L. Karlberg, R. W. Corell, V. J. Fabry, J. Hansen, B. Walker, D. Liverman, K. Richardson, P. Crutzen, and J. Foley. 2009. Planetary boundaries:exploring the safe operating space for humanity. Ecology and Society, 14(2), 32. URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss2/art32/.
- Class 4 (01/25/2017): Entering the Post-Holocene
Summary
During recent centuries, humanity has increasingly modified the land surface and created global change. Particularly during the 20th century, the changes in relevant system parameters, such as global energy usage, population growth, land use change, resource usage, and inequality have been two to three orders of magnitude faster than on average throughout the Holocene before 1900. As a result, the Earth's life-support system has been degraded and global boundaries of the “safe operating space” (SOSH) have been crossed. Among others, climate has change rapidly compared to the baseline mentioned in Class 2. Several climate variables (such as atmospheric carbon dioxide, methane, surface albedo, global air and ocean temperature) are already outside of this normal range, and projection indicate that the climate system is moving rapidly further away from it. Moreover, for most climate-relevant variables, the speed of the changes observed in the 20th century and those projected for the 21st century and beyond exceeds the natural variability documented during the last 1 million years by two orders of magnitude and more.
Reading List
Syvitski, J., 2012. Anthropocene: an epoch of our making. Global Change, 78, 12-15.
Additional Reading
Carrington, D., 2016. The Anthropocene epoch: scientists declare dawn of human-influenced age . The Guardian, 29 August 2016. See article.
Laffoley, D., Baxter, J. M. (eds.), 2016. Explaining Ocean Warming: Causes, scale, effects and consequences. International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources. Available at https://portals.iucn.org/library/node/46254.
IUCN, 2016. Explaining Ocean Warming: Causes, scale, effects and consequences - Executive Summary. International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources. Available at https://portals.iucn.org/library/node/46254.
Cheng, L., Trenberth, K. E., Palmer, M. D., Zhu, J., and Abraham, J. P.: Observed and simulated full-depth ocean heat-content changes for 1970–2005, Ocean Sci., 12, 925-935, doi:10.5194/os-12-925-2016, 2016. See http://www.ocean-sci.net/12/925/2017/.
Homework 1: Questions for you (please provide written answers by 01/24/2017, 8:00 PM)
- Why was the Holocene a “safe operating space for humanity” (SOSH)? Describe three aspects in which the Holocene was different, and favorable to humanity, from other geological epochs.
- What, in your opinion, is the key circumstance that allowed humanity in the last century to grow as fast as it did and push the planet outside of the Holocene?
- What, in your opinion, are the most likely consequences of leaving the Holocene and transitioning into a new epoch?
- Class 5 (01/30/2017): Attempting a Diagnosis: Degradation of the Earth's Life-Support System
Summary
Attempting a diagnosis of what is currently taking place, it becomes clear that climate change and sea level rise are symptoms of the underlying global change. The crossing of global boundaries of the safe operating space for humanity is putting the system on a rapid transition to a new state unknow to humanity.
Reading List
World Watch Institute, 2013. Is Sustainability Still Possible? World Watch Institute, Washington, D.C. The most important to read is Chapter 1, Engelman, R.: "Beyond Sustainababble."
Ruddiman, W. F., 2005. How did humans first alter global climate? Scientific American, March 2005, 46-53.
Additional Readings:
https://eos.org/editors-vox/here-comes-the-anthropocene?utm_source=eos&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EosBuzz090916
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017EF000379/full
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015EF000339/abstract
- Class 6 (02/01/2017): Attempting a Diagnosis: Ecosystem Services
Class slides: Part 1: PDF; Part 2: pptx
Summary
Homework 2: Questions for you:
- How would you define the Anthropocene? What makes the Anthropocene different from other geological epochs?
- What, in your assessment, are the key drivers for the changes during the last 200 years and, in particular, the last 70 year?
- What are the two global boundaries of the “safe operating space for humanity” (SOSH) that humanity has already crossed and what are potential consequences of crossing these boundaries?
- Class 7 (02/06/2017): System of Systems View. What is the Prognosis?
Class slides: Part 1: pptx, Part 2: keynote PDF
The system is in a transition to a high-energy state, with potential severe changes in meteorological and hydrological hazards. The relationships found in the long-term baseline also indicate that the recent and projected rapid climate change has committed humanity to a large sea level rise during the next centuries unparalleled by all changes experienced by civilization. Over time, this change in sea level will lead to major shifts in the present-day coastline, with little options to protect large areas of the current coastal zone against inundation. Considering that in general coastal zones are highly productive and urban areas are growing much faster in coastal zones than in other regions, a rapid sea level rise would cause many local and regional disasters with globally devastating consequences.
How can we explore possible futures? A system of systems view on the Earth system and the embedded anthroposphere provides a theoretical framework to research the nature of feedback loops and their role for future developments in the earth system. Scenario-based simulations can be used to explore possible the future and provide guidance for the development of interventions that bring the system closer to desirable futures.
Reading List
Barnosky, A. D., Hadly, E. A., Bascompte, J., Berlow, E. L., Brown, J. H., Fortelius, M., Getz, W. M., Harte, J., Hastings, A., Marquet, P. A., Martinez, N. D., Mooers, A., Roopnarine, P., Vermeij, G., Williams, J. W., Gillespie, R., Kitzes, J., Marshall, C., Matzke, N., Mindell, D. P., Revilla, E., Smith, A. B., 2012. Approaching a state shift in Earth’s biosphere. Nature, 486, 52-58, doi:10.1038/nature11018.
Griggs, D., Stafford-Smith, M., Gaffney, O., Rockström, J., Öhman, M. C., Shyamsundar, P., Steffen, W., Glaser, G., Kanie, N., Noble, I., 2013. Sustainable development goals for people and planet. Nature, 495, 305-307.
Please read the summary and scan through this document: Hansen, J., Sato, M., Hearty, P., Ruedy, R., Kelley, M., Masson-Delmotte, V., Russell, G., Tselioudis, G., Cao, J., Rignot, E., Velicogna, I., Kandiano, E., von Schuckmann, K., Kharecha, P., Legrande, A. N., Bauer, M., Lo, K.-W., 2015. Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2oC global warming is highly dangerous, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 15, 20059-20179, doi:10.5194/acpd-15-20059-2015.
Look at the Sustainable Development Goals: https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdgs.
Additional Reading
Stocker, T. F., 2015. The silent services of the world ocean. Science, 350, 764-766. pdf.
Role of terrestrial biosphere in counteracting climate change may have been underestimated. New research suggests that the capacity of the terrestrial biosphere to absorb carbon dioxide (CO2) may have been underestimated in past calculations due to certain land-use changes not being fully taken into account. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/01/170130110930.htm
The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is a extremely valuable source of information on climate change and adaptation. The "Synthesis Report" and the "Summaries for Policy Makers" are a good starting point to decide which chapters to look at. See the IPCC AR5 web page at http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/.
IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 pp.
Brown, L., 2011. World on the Edge - How to prevent environmental and economic collapse. Earth Policy Institute.
- Class 8 (02/08/2017): What is the Prognosis? Is there a Therapy?
Summary
Scenario-based simulations and risk assessments are methodologies to explore possible futures in support of the development of mitigation and adaptation actions that facilitate system trajectories towards desirable futures. Climate simulations for a range of emission scenarios provided a basis for mitigation policy developments that were used in the discussion of global climate change mitigation agreements. Global risk assessments show that environmental risks are increasingly likely with severe impacts on social and economic risks. Reading List: See Class 7
Homework 3: Questions for you
- How is the current loss of biodiversity different from any previous extinction? List all possible characteristics.
- What are the current pitfalls in our conservation efforts?
- Summarize the core challenges of climate change and sea level rise for public health.
- Explain the main issues of the food-water-energy nexus.
- Class 9 (02/13/2017): Knowing the hazards: Extinction
Summary
There have been at least five times in Earth's history when a large number of species, on the order of 70-96% of all species, were lost over a relatively short period ranging from several ten thousand to several hundred thousand of years. These mass extinction events are attributed to periods of prolonged volcanic eruptions, asteroid impacts and changes in the state and chemistry of the planet. The current extinction rate is extremely high and leading to an unparalleled rapid loss of biodiversity.
Reading List
To view: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gPq9YAg9mfc&feature=youtu.be
Purvis, A., Gittleman, J. L., Cowlishaw, G., Mace, G. M., 2000. Predicting extinction risk in declining species. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B, 267, 1947-1952
Pimm, S. L., Jenkins, C. N., Abell, R., Brooks, T. M., Gittleman, J. L., Joppa, L. N., Raven, P. H., Roberts, C. M., Sextonet, J. O., 2014. The biodiversity of species and their rates of extinction, distribution, and protection. Science, 344, 1246752. DOI: 10.1126/science.1246752
Lodge, J., 2017. Turtle hatchlings dying in extreme heat at Mon Repos. ABC News, Australia, February 3, 2017, html.
Additional Reading
Williams, M., Zalasiewicz, J., Haff, P. K., Schwägerl, C., Barnosky, A. D., Ellis, E. C., 2015. The Anthropocene biosphere. The Anthropocene Review, doi: 10.1177/2053019615591020. See abstract.
Hance, J., 2015. How humans are driving the sixth mass extinction. The Guardian, 20 October 2015, see article.
Rossman, J., Smith-Marash, C., 2014. Deep dive: Mass extinction. http://visual.ly/deep-dive-mass-extinctions.
Doncaster, C. P., Chavez, V. A., Viguier, C., Wang, R., Zhang, E., Dong, X., Dearing, J. A., Langdon, P. G., Dyke, J. G., 2016. Early warning of critical transitions in biodiversity from compositional disorder. Ecology, DOI: 10.1002/ecy.1558. See also https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/08/160818212811.htm.
Plag, H.-P., 2013b. Uncontrolled Experiment or Planetary Accident? Civilization as an extinction-class event. Column 3 in “On The Edge.” ApoGeo, Fall 2013, 14-17.
Morell, V., 2017. World's most endangered marine mammal down to 30 individuals. Science, Posted in Oceangraphy, Plats and Animals. html.
- Class 10 (02/15/2017): Knowing the Hazards: Ecosystem Services
Summary
It is hard to describe all the complexity and value of ecosystem services. We will discuss current state of some major ecosystem services, such as those provided by soil, biodiversity (including health benefits), and mobile links.
Reading List
Barnosky, A. D., Hadly, E. A., Bascompte, J., Berlow, E. L., Brown, J. H., Fortelius, M., Getz, W. M., Harte, J., Hastings, A., Marquet, P. A., Martinez, N. D., Mooers, A., Roopnarine, P., Vermeij, G., Williams, J. W., Gillespie, R., Kitzes, J., Marshall, C., Matzke, N., Mindell, D. P., Revilla, E., Smith, A. B., 2012. Approaching a state shift in Earth's biosphere. Nature, 486, 52-58, doi:10.1038/nature11018.
Kremen, C., Williams, N. M., Aizen, M. A., et al. (2007). Pollination and other ecosystem services produced by mobile organisms: a conceptual framework for the effects of land‐use change. Ecology Letters, 10, 299-314.
Palmer, Todd M., Maureen L. Stanton, Truman P. Young, Jacob R. Goheen, Robert M. Pringle, Richard Karban. 2008. Breakdown of an Ant-Plant Mutualism Follows the Loss of Large Herbivores from an African Savanna, Science, 319, 192-195.
Plag, H.-P. and Jules-Plag, S., 2013. Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Ecosystems. In Pielke Sr., R. A., Seastedt, T. and Suding, K. (eds.): “Vulnerability of Ecosystems to Climate”, Volume 4 of ”Climate Vulnerability: Understanding and Addressing Threats to Essential Resources“, pp 163-184, Elsevier.
Williams, M., Zalasiewicz, J., Haff, P. K., Schwägerl, C., Barnosky, A. D., Ellis, E. C., 2015. The Anthropocene biosphere. The Anthropocene Review, doi: 10.1177/2053019615591020. See abstract.
Additional readings:
James E.M. Watson, J. E. M., Shanahan, D. F., Di Marco, M., Allan, J., Laurance, W. F., Sanderson, E. W., Mackey, B., Venter, O., 2016. Catastrophic Declines in Wilderness Areas Undermine Global Environment Targets. Current Biology, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2016.08.049, http://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822%2816%2930993-9.
Sophie N. Chu, Zhaohui Aleck Wang, Scott C. Doney, Gareth L. Lawson, Katherine A. Hoering. Changes in anthropogenic carbon storage in the Northeast Pacific in the last decade. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 2016; 121 (7): 4618 DOI: 10.1002/2017JC011775. See also the announcement at https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/09/160907125002.htm.
Spalding, M. D., Brown, B. E., 2015. Warm-water coral reefs and climate change. Science, 350(6262), 769-771. pdf.
Homework 4: Questions for you
- Explain in a system-of-system framework the nature of feedback loops and thresholds.
- To what extent does the IPCC thoroughly address the drivers behind climate change, and how are these reflected in the Assessment Report?
- Comparing Figure 1 in Lenton and Schellnhuber (2007) to the discussion of rapid changes over the last 10 years provided in previous classes, which of the thresholds have already been crossed, or are likely to be crossed, much earlier than anticipated by Lenon and Schellnhuber (2007)?
- Class 11 (02/20/2017): Knowing the Hazards: Ecosystem Services (Continued)
- Class 12 (02/22/2017): Student Project
Summary
We will discuss technical details of the student project and methodology.
Homework 5: Questions for you
- Summarize the main argument and concern in Barnosky et al. (2012).
- How does land-use change affect pollinator communities? Provide a detailed answer.
- What agricultural management practices would be beneficial to facilitate pollination services and crop yield?
- Describe the effect of the loss of large herbivores in African savanna on native trees.
- Class 13 (02/27/2017): Knowing the Hazards: Climate Hazards, Public Health, Food-Water-Energy Nexus
Summary
Climate change is expected to increase extreme weather events including droughts, floods, heat waves, and in some regions cold spells. This will have severe impacts on both the natural and built environment. Sea level is expected to rise significantly with severe impacts on coastal ecosystems, resources, settlements, and the urban and working coast. Ocean warming and acidification will add hazards to the coastal zone. The disaster risk associated with extreme storms and storm surges is also expected to increase. Thus, land use planning has to consider a much larger range of possible environmental conditions than those experienced in the past.
Climate change, pollution, and global change present new and serious threats to human health. Food, water and energy needs are competing creating a complex nexus that is further complicated by population growth. Global and climate change have a significant impact on the distribution functions of many environmental variables including climate variables, ecosystem variables. We will talk about global systems connections and how anthropogenic changes in one part of the world have unexpected impact on biodiversity and human health in the other part. Particular aspects of hazards under climate change are related to changes in the hazard spectrum that are hard to predict with low uncertainty. Therefore, developing foresight is of increasing importance if the system is in rapid transition.
Reading List
IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp. Available at http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/.
Hansen, J., 2016. Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2oC global warming could be dangerous, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3761-3812, doi:10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016. html
Plag, H.-P., and Jules-Plag, S., 2013. Sea-Level Rise and Health. In Pielke Sr., R. A., Seastedt, T., and Suding, K.: “Vulnerability of Human Health to Climate”, Volume 1 of “Climate Vulnerability: Understanding and Addressing Threats to Essential Resources,” pp 39-47, Elsevier, Inc., New York.
World Energy Council, 2016. The Road to Resilience - Managing the Risk of the Energy-Water-Food Nexus. Report in the series "World Energy Perspectives 2016". World Energy Council in Partnership with Marsh and McLennan Companies and Swiss Re Corporate Solutions. http://www.worldenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/The-road-to-resilience-managing-the-risks-of-the-energy-water-food-nexus_-early-findings-report.pdf
Additional Readings
Lenton, T. M., Schellnhuber, H. J., 2007. Tipping the scales. Nature Reports Climate Change, doi:10.1038/climate.2007.65, available at http://www.nature.com/climate/2007/0712/full/climate.2007.65.html.
For the coverage of drought impacts in the press, see NBC News.
Prasad, R., Yadav, R. L., Ahlawat, I. P. S. (eds.), 2016. Fourth International Agronomy Congress - Environment, Energy and Livelihood Security to Achieve Zero Hunger Challenge, 22–26 November 2016, New Delhi, India. Extended Summaries, Lead Papers, Volume 4. Indian Society of Agronomy, Indian Council of Agricultural Research, New Delhi, India. pdf
Gramling, C., 2015. How warming oceans unleashed an ice stream. Science, 350(6262), 728. pdf.
WMO, 2014. Greenhouse Gas Bulletin. Vol 10, 9 September 2014. Available at http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/gaw/ghg/GHGbulletin.html.
Levin, L. A., Le Bris, N., 2015. The deep ocean under climate change. Science, 350(6262), 766-768. pdf.
Committee on Understanding and Monitoring Abrupt Climate Change and Its Impacts; Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate; Division on Earth and Life Studies; National Research Council, 2013. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises. National Research Council, USA. ISBN 978-0-309-28773-9, DOI 10.17226/18373. Available at https://www.nap.edu/download/18373.
Holthaus, E., 2016. The Point of No Return: Climate Change Nightmares Are Already Here. Rollingstone, August 5, 2016. html.
Holthaus, E., 2016. Earth's Most Famous Climate Scientist Issues Bombshell Sea Level Warning. The Slatest - Your News Companion, July 20 2015 4:23 PM. html
Limited sign of soil adaptation to climate warming. While scientists and policy experts debate the impacts of global warming, Earth’s soil is releasing roughly nine times more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere than all human activities combined. This huge carbon flux from soil, which is due to the natural respiration of soil microbes and plant roots, begs one of the central questions in climate change science. As the global climate warms, will soil respiration rates increase, adding even more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere and accelerating climate change? https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/01/170130140004.htm.
IAC, 2016. Fourth International Agronomy Congress: Agronomy for Sustainable Management of Natural Resources, Environment, Energy and Livelihood Security to Achieve Zero Hunger Challenge. Lead Papers of the congress held on 22–26 November 2016, New Delhi, India, Volume 4. Indian Society of Agronomy, Indian Council of Agricultural Research, New Delhi, India. pdf.
Student Project: Draft bibliography, concept and summary of project and research paper, due on 02/27/2017, 10:00 AM
- Class 14 (03/01/2017): Vulnerabilities of natural and human built environment; Economy, Inequality and Injustice
Summary
Risk, Vulnerability, Thresholds, Resilience, Panarchy are terms that are used in the discussion of adaptation challenges. These terms are introduced. The anthropogenic changes in the environment are slowly pushing the planetary life-support system to a state shift with potentially severe consequences for both human and non-human mammals and the rest of the biosphere. Understanding thresholds and detecting them prior to crossing them is of paramount importance. The built environment and public services such as power, water, food, health, transportation, communication, sewage systems are based on a design basis in terms of environmental conditions (particularly the weather extremes in terms of heat and cold extremes, flood levels, humidity, wind including hurricanes and tornadoes, snow loads) that have been experienced in the past. Increasingly, extremes are shifting, exposing built environment and the public services to conditions exceeding the design basis.
The changes in the natural environment caused by direct and indirect human activities, including extinction, global warming, and increased hazards lead to severe impacts on economy, increased inequality, and injustice due to impacts on populations that contributed least to the causes for the changes.
Reading List
Committee on Climate Change, 2016. Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017. See https://www.theccc.org.uk/uk-climate-change-risk-assessment-2017/. In particular, read the Technical Chapters on Infrastructure and the Built Environment.
Looi, M. K., 2016. Its getting too hot to work and it could cost the global economy trillions. Quartz, July 20, 2016. http://qz.com/735993/its-getting-too-hot-to-work-and-it-could-cost-the-global-economy-trillions/. See https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-07/tca-htf071416.php for access to the papers.
Hallegatte, S., Green, C., Nicholls, R. J., Corfee-Morlot, J., 2013. Future flood losses in major coastal cities. Nature Clim. Change, online publication on 2013/08/18/. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1979.
Additional Readings:
Younger, M., Morrow-Almeida, H. R., Vindigni, S. M., Dannenberg, A. L., 2008. The Built Environment, Climate Change, and Health - Opportunities for Co-Benefits. American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 35(5), doi:10.1016/j.amepre.2008.08.017.
Department of Ecology, State of Washington, 2016. Climate Change Effects on Infrastructure and the Built Environment. See http://www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange/2012ccrs/infrastructure.htm.
Paolisso, M., Douglas, E., Enrici, Akirshen,P., Watson,C., Ruth, M. (2012) Climate Change, Justice, and Adaptation among African American Communities in the Chesapeake Bay Region, Weather , Climate, And Society, 4, 34-47.
Dvorsky, G., 2016. Rising sea level threaten nearly a trillion dollars worth of U.S. homes. Gismodo, August 3, 2016. See http://gizmodo.com/rising-sea-levels-threaten-nearly-a-trillion-dollars-wo-1784775754 and the Zillow report for more details.
Oxfam, 2013. No accident. Resilience and the inequality of risk. Oxfam Briefing Paper. Available as pdf, local pdf. See introduction at https://www.oxfam.org/en/research/no-accident-resilience-and-inequality-risk and commentary at http://politicsofpoverty.oxfamamerica.org/2013/05/21/no-accident-resilience-and-the-inequality-of-climate-change-and-disaster-risk/.
http://www.thenation.com/article/155102/slavery-climate-change#
Hallegatte, S., 2012. Economics: The rising costs of hurricanes. Nature Clim. Change, 2(3), 148-149. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1427.
Committee on Climate Change, 2016. Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017. See https://www.theccc.org.uk/uk-climate-change-risk-assessment-2017/. In particular, read the Technical Chapters on Infrastructure and the Built Environment.
Homework 6: Questions for you:
- What are the main vulnerabilities to sea level rise of infrastructure and the built environment as identified in the CCRA 2017 compiled by the U.K. Committee on Climate change? Provide a list of the vulnerabilities (not the risk) and a brief summary for each point you include in the list.
- Give two examples of injustice caused by climate change and/or sea level rise, one on local scale (Paolisso et al., 2012) and one on global scale (Looi, 2016).
- Based on the Zillow study (see Dvorsky, 2016) and Hallegatte et al., 2013, describe two major risks of sea level rise that could cause economic regression or a major economy crisis.
- Based on Glantz and Kelman (2013), Explain the difference between “Decision making under uncertainty” and “Decision making under Forseeability”
- Class 15 (03/13/2017): Developing Foresight
Summary
The changes in the physical and chemical state of the climate and biological systems can be expected to lead to unpredicted changes with limited predictablility. Moreover, predictive capability developed throughout the 20th and 21st century may be strongly reduced due to changing patterns. An example is the potential breakdown of well-developed oscillatory patterns such as the quasi-biennial oscillation, the Southern Oscillation, and the North-Atlantic oscillation. Likewise, significant shifts in extremes and means can be expected and based on that foresight can be developed. However, model predictions will lose their value due to unrealistic uncertainties (too low) resulting from not accounting for the systemic changes.
Mitigation and Adaptation are important aspects of the transitions to a stustainable development. Evidence-based policy development for mitigation and adaptation is an important step towards the transition. Modeling and simulation can help to inform society to better understand the causes and potential impacts of global and climate change and help develop policy solutions.
Reading List
Glantz, M. H., Kelman, I. 2013. Thoughts on dealing with climate change ... as if the future matters. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 4(1), 1 — 8. DOI: 10.1007/s13753-013-0002-1. html.
Editorial, 2013. Certain uncertainty. Nature Clim. Change, 3(8), 689. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1978.
Epstein, J., 2008. Why Models. JASSS, 11, 4, 12. See http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/11/4/12.html.
Dessai, S., Hulme, M., Lempert, R., Pielke Jr., R., 2009. Do We Need Better Predictions to Adapt to a Changing Climate? EOS, 90, doi:10.1029/2009EO130003.
Additional Reading:
Rice, J., Moss, R., Runci, P., Anderson, K., Malone, E., 2012. Incorporating stakeholder decision support needs into an integrated regional Earth system model. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 17(7}), 805-819.
Osprey, S. M., Butchart, N., Knight, J. R., Scaife, A. A., Hamilton, K., Anstey, J. A., Schenzinger, V., Zhang, C., 2016. An unexpected disruption of the atmospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. Science, DOI: 10.1126/science.aah4156. See also https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/09/160908151118.htm
Urban, M. C., Bocedi, G., Hendry, A. P., Mihoub, J.-B., Pe'er, G., Singer, A., Bridle, J. R., Crozier, L. G., De Meester, L., Godsoe, W., Gonzalez, A., Hellmann, J. J., Holt, R. D., Huth, A., Johst, K., Krug, C. B., Leadley, P. W., Palmer, S. C. F., Pantel, J. H., Schmitz, A., Zollner, P. A., Travis, J. M. J., 2016. Improving the forecast for biodiversity under climate change. Science, 353(6304), DOI: 10.1126/science.aad8466.
Chapter 2 in: Ekstrom, J. A., Moser, S. C., Torn, M., 2011. Barriers to Climate Change Adaptation: A diagnostic Framework. Public Interest Energy Research (PIER) Program; Final Project Report. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (pdf).
- Class 16 (03/15/2017): Decision-Making: Socio-Economic and Political Contexts
Summary
Our mainstream model of a global economy is based on a number of assumptions about goals of economy, how it works, and how the planetary system is linked to it. These assumptions arose in a time when humanity was small and with much less access to energy, and at a time when wide-spread poverty was the main concern. The resulting economy is in conflict with many of nature's laws. However, there are high economic values connected with the causes of climate change, and those benefiting from these causes have high resistance to societal transitions that would mitigate climate change.
Reading List
Constanza, R., Alperovitz, G., Daly, H., Farley, J., Franco, C., Jackson, T., Kubiszewski, I., Schor, J., Victor, P., 2013. Building a sustainable and desirable economy-in-society-in nature. Chapter 11 in World Watch Institute, 2013. Is Sustainability Still Possible? World Watch Institute, Washington, D.C..
Barrett, P., Philips, M., 2016. Can ExxonMobile be found liable for misleading the public on climate change? Bloomberg Businessweek, September 7, 2016. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-07/will-exxonmobil-have-to-pay-for-misleading-the-public-on-climate-change.
Viguie, V., Hallegatte, S., 2012. Trade-offs and synergies in urban climate policies. Nature Clim. Change, 2(5), 334-337. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1434. (pdf, supplement pdf).
Magnan, A. K., Bille, R., Cooley, S. R., Kelly, R., Pörtner, H.-O., Turley, C., Gattuso, J.-P., 2015. Intertwined ocean and climate: implications for international climate negotiations. Policy Brief, 04/2015, 1-4. pdf.
Homework 7: Questions for you
- Discuss the potential implications of foreseeability of the increasing damage of climate change for those who are causing climate change.
- Can models help to inform decision making? If so, how can they help?
- Based on Constanza et al. (2013), describe how nature and natural wealth are accounted for in the current mainstream model of economy.
- Class 17 (03/20/2017): Decision-Making: Human Nature
Summary
Decisions made by humans are normally based on incomplete knowledge and impacted by assumptions, biases, and preferences. Cognitive biases are part of human nature and the degree to which these biases impact decisions from individual to global levels depend on the past experience of an individual, the community and cultural preferences, and the value systems accepted by individuals and communities. Being aware of the impact of biases on decisions is of fundamental importance for the discussion of threats, mitigation, and adaptation. Humans seldom make decisions based on rational considerations. In fact, most decisions are based on what
Reading List
Lee, S. and Lebowitz, S., 2015. 20 cognitive biases that screw up your decisions. Business Insider, August 26, 2015. See http://www.businessinsider.com/cognitive-biases-that-affect-decisions-2015-8. See also the Wikipedia article on cognitive distortions.
Rosenzweig, E., 2016. We're All Biased, but That Doesn't Keep Us from Making Valid Decisions. Scientific American Mind, Blog published on July 5, 2016. See html.
Kahneman, D., Lovallo, D., Sibony, O., 2011. Before you make that decision. Harvard Business Review, June 2011, 51-60. pdf.
Additional Reading:
Kolbert, E., 2017. Why Facts Don’t Change Our Minds - New discoveries about the human mind show the limitations of reason. The New Yorker, http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/02/27/why-facts-dont-change-our-minds.
Stattford, T, 2016. How liars create the 'illusion of truth'. BBC blog available at http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20171026-how-liars-create-the-illusion-of-truth.
Fazio, L. K., Brashier, N. M., Payne, B. K., Marsh, E. J., 2015. Knowledge Does Not Protect Against Illusory Truth. J. Experimental Psychology, 144, No. 5, 993-1002. pdf.
Kahneman, D., 2011. Thinking, Fast and Slow. Farrar, Staus, and Girrow.
View: “How Not to Be Ignorant About the World” by Hans and Ola Rosling https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sm5xF-UYgdg
- Class 18 (03/22/2017): Decision-Making: Facing Threats
Summary
The way how threats are encountered and risks are managed, understood, ignored in different cultures and how natural laws are integrated in risk assessments depends on the cultural biases, the preception of reality, and the social, economic and ethical rules accepted by the community. It also depends on how these threads and risks are related and competeing with the core values of the community. Environmental risks resulting from the fact that we have crossed global boundaries, have changed land use and eliminated a large part of the wildlife are competing with the goals of material wellbeing that is central to modern civilization.
Reading List
Kirchhoff, C.J., Lemos, M.C., Dessai, S., 2013. Actionable knowledge for environmental decision making: Broadening the usability of climate science, Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 38, 393-414. pdf.
Berger, A., Brown, C., Kousky, C., Zeckhauser, R., 2011. The Challenge of degraded environments: How common biases impair effective policy. Risk Analysis, 31(9) 1423-1433. pdf.
Figueroa-Helland, L.E. Lindgren, L., Pfaeffle, T., 2016. Civilization on a crash course? Imperialism, subimperialism and the political-ecological breaking point of the modern/colonial world-system, Perspectives on Global Development and Technology, 15, 257-289. See ODU Library.
Abstract: Abstract: Modern/colonial civilization has already breached several planetary boundaries and its ecological footprint is overwhelming the Earth's carrying capacity. The ecological space for the growth of modern urban civilization is at its breaking point. We conduct two case studies, of Russia and Brazil, to show that the aspirations of semi-peripheral "emerging economies" to catch-up, clone and compete with the West within the hegemonic terms of an ecologically unsustainable and socially stratifying civilizational model requires their systematic practice of internal colonialism and regional subimperialism. Playing catch-up with the North and its unsustainable mode of political economy demands the present-day rehearsal, in accelerated, compressed and subimperial modes of the structurally violent practices that have underpinned the North's "rise" to planetary dominance. Yet in striving to catch-up and join in the overconsumptive and exploitative lifestyle of economic cores, large "emerging economies" like the BRICS are in an economic, political and military crash course against the hegemonically-entrenched Northern core powers they aspire to emulate, in what looks like an increasingly volatile scramble to grab whatever dwindling ecological space is left in a rapidly degraded planet.Additional readings:
Casti, J. L., 2012. X-Events - The Collapse of Everthing, HarperCollins Publisher, New York.
Smil, V., 2008. Global catastrophes and trends: The next 50 years, MIT Press.
Homework 8: Questions for you:
- What do you know about cognitive biases and how do you think they impact our decision making? Give examples.
- We do not expect you to read the book on fast and slow thinking by Kahnemann, although this would be very good for you. However, have a look at the summary at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thinking,_Fast_and_Slow. Then provide two examples of decisions based on fast and slow thinking and comment on the quality of the decisions made.
- Apply the Kahneman et al. (2011) methodology to reduce the impact of cognitive biases to a recommendation you have recently heard of, e.g. related to the discussions on climate change, terrorism, or the discussion on health insurance in the U.S.
- Class 19 (03/27/2017): Student Project
- Class 20 (03/29/2017): Student Project
- Class 21 (04/03/2017): Developing Options: Avoiding Adaptation or Changing Paradigms?
Summary
Despite abundant evidence that the Earth's life support system is rapidly degrading and that the degradation is accelerating, there is solid resistance to both mitigation and adaptation. In many cases, communities are not ready to accept the evidence and make evidence-informed decision, which would require significant changes in land use, use of resources, and moral changes. Is it an acceptable approach to wait for events to get more extreme before adaptation measures are being taken? Options for adaptation often imply the changing of existing paradigms. Moreover, exploring different options requires some tools to explore possible futures and to generate the transformation knowledge required to change the system trajectory towards a desirable future. Assessing which options are viable necessitates the involvement of stakeholders in the process of developing options. "Change by design" is an approach to this.
Readings
Brown, T, Katz, B., 2009. Change by Design. HarperCollins e-books.
Additional Readings
Anderson, K., Peters, G., 2016. The trouble with negative emissions. Science, 354(6309), 182-183. DOI: 10.1126/science.aah4567.
Kuhn, T, 1962. The structure of scientific revolutions. Available as pdf. Classic history of science essay that defines normal science and how paradigm shifts redefine science so that what was before is now unscientific. Defines science problems and standards, and communication techniques within science.
- Class 22 (04/05/2017): Developing Options: Resilience and Anti-Fragility
Summary
Nassim N Taleb (2012) introduced a concept that aims to be the opposite of fragile, and he calls this "antifragile." While a resilient system can resist a shock and remain basically the same after the shock, an antifragile system has the ability and willingness to learn from the shock and change in response. To prepare for an uncertain future, being antifragile is of benefit. The development of options for climate change adaptation should therefore go beyond increasing resilience and aim to make the systems exposed to cimate change antifragile.
Readings
Taleb, N. N., 2012. Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder. Random House. See also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antifragile, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/17/books/antifragile-by-nassim-nicholas-taleb.html, https://www.theguardian.com/books/2012/dec/16/antifragile-nassim-nicholas-taleb-review,
Homework 9: Questions for you:
- Explain in detail the difference between the classical concept of “resilience” and the new concept of “antifragility”. What are main characteristics of a resilient and an antifragile community? Provide examples of a resilient system and one that is antifragile.
- Explain the concept of “paradigm” and give an example of a paradigm that may not be applicable under climate change.
- To what extent are current options for adaptation to climate change and sea level rise antifragile?
- Class 23 (04/10/2017): Developing Options: Safe-guarding the Earth's Life-Support System: Economy and Governance
Summary
A sustainable community is one that satisfies the needs of the present while safeguarding the Earth's life-support system (ELSS), on which the welfare of current and future generations depends. Humanity is embedded in and dependent on the ELSS. For at least 200 years, almost all interactions, including the flow of material, energy, and information between society and the ELSS are economic in nature and controlled by ethical, social, and economic ESE) rules, which in turn are impacted by the changes in the ELSS. To reach sustainability, safeguarding the ELSS has to be congenital to the economic rules. Although the vast majority of normative ethical accounts demand that the human population transitions to a fair, sustainable lifestyle, the economic rules that require perpetual growth are in tension with this moral requirement. In fact, the current rules are sustaining growth by accelerating the main mass and energy cycles in the ELSS leading to a cataclysmic degradation. Humanity has developed into the “anthropogenic cataclysmic virus” (ACV) in the ELSS. To reach sustainability, this virus is challenged with a transition into the healer.
Reading List
Boyce, J. K., 2013. Economics, The Environment and Our Common Wealth. Edward Elgar Publishing Inc. See http://www.peri.umass.edu/236/hash/9075669bb1167c89a85947735ace6a03/publication/547/.
Greer, J. M., 2011. The Wealth of Nature - Economics as if Survival Matters. New Society Pubishers, Gabriola Island, Canada.
Jackson, T., 2009. Prosperity without Growth - Economics for a Finite Planet. Earthscan, UK.
Additional Readings
Economy for Humanity, 2014. See http://www.economy4humanity.org
Plag, H.-P., 2015. Safeguarding our life support system - Overcoming the "immutable truth" of growth being necessary for a thriving economy. Column 11 in “On The Edge.” ApoGeo, 30(4), Fall 2015, 10-15. html.
- Class 24 (04/12/2017): Developing Options: Mitigating the Degradation of the Life-Support System
Summary
NA
Additional Readings
Diffenbaugh. N. S., Field, C. B., 2013. Changes in Ecologically Critical Terrestrial Climate Conditions. Science, 341(6145), 486-492. DOI:10.1126/science.1237123. (pdf, supplement pdf)
Hardin, G., 1968. The tragedy of the commons. Science, 162(3859), 1243-1248, DOI: 10.1126/science.162.3859.1243. Available at http://www.sciencemag.org/content/162/3859/1243.full
Shogren, E., 2016. How the National Park Service Is Planning for Climate Change. The Atlantic, August 24, 2016. See http://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/08/how-the-national-park-service-is-planning-for-climate-change/497042/
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/09/humpback-whale-delisting-endangered-species-recovery/
Homework 10: Questions for you:
- Considering the normative ethical principle of a duty not to participate in massive harm, discuss to what extent the descriptive ethical basis for the national and international handling of involuntary migration caused by climate change impacts is consistent with the normative principle.
- To what extent is the current wealth distribution and the development of this distribution over time consistent with the normative ethical principle of a duty to justice? Use the Credit Swiss "Global Wealth Report 2016" available here as a source for data and global wealth distribution.
- How would you characterize the descriptive ethics that is the basis for a system trajectory pushing us out of the safe operating space for humanity? Is this consistent with the normative ethics of a duty to care about the life of future generations?
- Class 25 (04/17/2017): Student Presentations
Final research papers are due on 04/16/2017. Presentation due on 04/16/2017, 8:00 PM (for those presenting on 04/17/2017).
- Class 26 (04/19/2017): Student Presentations
Presentations are due on 12/18/2016, 8:00 PM (for those presenting on 04/19/2017).