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MARI/CCPO Seminar Series
HURRICANE INUNDATION PROBABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT IN A CHANGING CLIMATE
JENNIFER IRISH, Virginia Tech
Reliable extreme-value hurricane flooding estimates are essential for effective risk assessment, management, and engineering in the coastal environment. Yet, the range of, and uncertainty in, future climate and sea-level conditions present a challenge for assessing future hurricane flooding probability. Here, methods will be presented for incorporating sea-level rise and time-varying hurricane conditions into extreme-value flood statistics. A joint probability approach will be used with surge response functions to define time-varying continuous probability density functions for hurricane flood elevation. Examples for risk assessment along the Texas coast will be presented.