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Gaining a Better Understanding of How to Cope with Extreme Low Probability and High Impact Shock Events; and what about Sea Level Rise?

Dr. Paul Smith, Arup, U.K.


It is one thing to carry out theoretical risk analysis by desktop, yet quite another to actually cope with extreme events and severe accidents in the real world. This lecture introduces “tried and tested” evaluation methods but with a modern context in a complex and changing environment. Real world coping with extreme events and severe accidents poses unique problems, including both tangible and intangible issues. Bringing together the science of extreme geohazards and symbolic evaluation techniques is believed to represent a significant development arena for better risk reduction and resilience improvement in the future. The future is changing, will be more demanding of coping strategies, as well as foretelling a degree of global uncertainty never experienced before by man. And man himself has been the provider of this increasing global uncertainty, including the prospect for global sea rise to hazard many coastal facing population centres. So what do we need to do?