Class 17 (03/14/2018): Developing Foresight

Class slides


The changes in the physical and chemical state of the climate and biological systems can be expected to lead to unpredicted changes with limited predictablility. Moreover, predictive capability developed throughout the 20th and 21st century may be strongly reduced due to changing patterns. An example is the potential breakdown of well-developed oscillatory patterns such as the quasi-biennial oscillation, the Southern Oscillation, and the North-Atlantic oscillation. Likewise, significant shifts in extremes and means can be expected and based on that foresight can be developed. However, model predictions will lose their value due to unrealistic uncertainties (too low) resulting from not accounting for the systemic changes.

Mitigation and Adaptation are important aspects of the transitions to a stustainable development. Evidence-based policy development for mitigation and adaptation is an important step towards the transition. Modeling and simulation can help to inform society to better understand the causes and potential impacts of global and climate change and help develop policy solutions.

Reading List

Glantz and Kelman, 2013.

Nature Climate Change, 2013.

Epstein, 2008.

Participatory Modeling Video.

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