Fall 2018: Natural Hazards and Disasters
Natural Hazards and Disasters
Lab 3: Disaster Risk Management and Global Risks; Case Study 1Probability Density Function of Natural HazardsThe PDF of a specific natural hazard can be established based on past records of occurrences of this hazard. For most hazards, the PDF will vary in space and can also change in time. For hazards that constitute discrete events, events that occur on average once in, for example, 10 years, 50 years, 100 years, etc. can be identified from the PDF. For continuous variables, the PDF is also a continuous function. An example is the change in global air temperature over a 100 year period. For the Holocene, up to 1900, the changes in global temperature within a hundred year period were small and narrowly distribute around a zero mean. Likewise, changes in atmospheric CO2 were small with a slight tendency to an increase. The PDF determined for the 120 centuries of the Holocene was stable and thus could be used for each century. However, for the 21st century, a large temperature increase is taking place and the PDF for the 21st temperature increase is centered around a non-zero value with a long tail towards high values. Disaster Risk GovernanceThe disaster risk management cycle includes four main phases: (1) awareness and preparedness; (2) early warning; (3) rescue; (4) recovery. Different authors present some variations in how these phases are described and named, but all presentations of the cycle have similar stages. For awareness and preparedness, knowledge of the hazards that can occur in an area and the PDF of these hazards is a crucial input. Outreach to the broad population and accessible integrated information determines the awareness and risk perception. For early warning, observing systems that can detect emerging hazardous events in a timely manner and means to broadcast warning are key elements. For rescue, means to assess the extent and areal distribution of damage are important and knowledge of possible subsequent hazards triggered by the initial event is required to reduce the risk for rescue teams. Efficient rescue is crucial for limiting the disaster, in particular the loss of lives. Communication is crucial in this phase. For recovery, in the first phase of the recovery, restoration of public services such as power, communication, health, and transportation helps to ensure rapid recovery. In subsequent phase, learning from the disaster and modify the design of the built environment are important steps. Global ThreatsGlobal threats include a number of natural and anthropogenic hazards. In the past, extreme natural hazards such as major volcanic eruptions, large impactors, droughts and famines, and pandemics were the main hazards that could cause disasters ranging from global disasters to extinction events. Modern global change caused by humanity in recent centuries has increased the probability of extreme anthropogenic hazards that could cause extreme disasters. Modern climate change has the potential to cause unparalleled human disasters and increase extinction up to the level of an extinction class event. A rapid sea level rise would most likely cause a global disaster or catastrophe. The emerging new climate unknown to humanity and most ecosystems could easily come with new extremes in storms, floods, heat waves, and droughts, and also generate unknown pandemics. The resulting human migration of global scale has the potential to cause social unrest and wars on global scales. Managing Global RisksAddressing global risks requires international and intergovernmental collaboration. While there are a number of frameworks and conventions aiming at risk management, an efficient governance for global risks has not been established. Plag et al. (2015) made recommendations for steps towards a global governance (see class 3). Case Study 1: Extraterrestrial HazardYour Extraterrestrial HazardMake a selection of a specific extraterrestrial hazard that you will describe and analyze according to the guidelines for the case study. Discuss your selection with the instructor to make sure you made a valid selection. Collect the data neededYou are asked to spend time searching the internet for data relevant for the case study. You can do this alone at home or in the library, or you can group in small groups and work together. Make sure that if you work in a group, that you prepare a paper that represents your individual work. This work may benefit from your discussions with your fellow students. Please, consult the guidelines for the case study. Work During Lab HourSince we have lost some time due to class cancellation, the lab time on September 24, 2018 will be available for you to work on your case study paper. Feel free to ask questions and get comments from the instructor before that lab hour by email. SubmissionA draft of the case study paper should be submitted not later than September 26, 2018. Note that the draft will not be graded, but it is an opportunity for you to get supportive comments. Comments on the draft will be returned not later than September 30, 2018. The final case study paper, which will be graded, is due October 3, 2018, 6:00 PM. Question Set 3: Disaster Risk Management and Global ThreatsAnswer three of the four questions.
Reading ListWarfield, C., n.d., The Disaster Management Cycle. html. |
